Essay - Decisions

Every decision we make in life has to be based on something. It interests me to think about the processes of the mind and I will attempt to break it down. Based on some initial assertions about what we seek, and what we value, I believe there is a basic process that non-rationally but justifiably reaches a decision, but which should be observed and tempered with some logic. In rational areas, emotions cloud judgment while in areas emotional by nature, we don't integrate rationality well.

Pleasure
People are driven to seek pleasure. Pleasure can be happiness, satisfaction, or physical. Whatever it may objectively be, we want to have a positive feeling about it. The point is that there is a positive feeling to be gained and everything we do is to achieve more of it. I will assert that it ultimately leads to a low level chemical stimulation of good feeling. Pleasure seeking is the great adaptation of all living creatures, and what allows life happen.

Outcomes
The outcome of any decision can be measured in the level of reward, or in the win/loss degree. Outcomes of every act elicit either positive or negative feelings in various degrees. The important idea here is that the result is a feeling, not linked to rational or objective results, but how personality shapes our emotional responses to events. It must be noted that external events are sensations perceived and interpreted by our personality, conceptualized to thoughts, and linked with stimulated feelings about it. We can therefore think of a positive outcome as a positive feeling. Any part of this process can be observed by a skilled mind.
These can be contrasted as follows, and weighed as such.

Effort/Time ---------------------------- Reward
Negative Outcome ----------------------Positive Outcome

Probability
The other major factor is our perception of outcome probabilities. A scientific method allows us to test, calculate and achieve satisfactory knowledge to make good decisions. The problem is that most life decisions don't allow the use of the precise scientific approach. Expectations are based on an intuitive process using past events, our personal outlook with different degrees of optimism, and most significantly an emotional weight. This is all done subconsciously because logic can't deal with the ambiguities when decisions have to be made with limited information. The mind experiences pure reality by conceptualizing a situation as a sort of compression of the sensed information, which can then be easily recalled because it's similar. The fact is, no situation is ever exactly the same, and this is a source of error. Conceptual memories are associated with a feeling, and this is what is then used to evaluate the expected outcome. What kind of feeling is linked with memories has a great effect on our future actions because that memory is used for evaluation.

Time Frame
The time frame of the expected outcome also has an important effect on the decision process. Events in the far future carry much less weight, then something in the near term. This makes sense because we want to avoid short term dangers to live another day. In this area, people also differ, as some are able to hold out for something big in the future, while others are impatient and are compelled by short term satisfaction.

Evaluation Process
Based on the proposed assertions, we can say that most decisions and behaviors are driven by a subconscious, emotionally driven process. Expected feelings associated with the negative side are weighed against the positive, with emotionally weighted probabilities. If the amount of painful effort invested, is less then the expected positive outcome, factored with the emotional weight, we do it. What makes this possible is the amazing power of the mind and biological brain, and the fact that we use the more efficient emotional evaluation rather then the more limited but more accurate conscious, rational process. Our brains have evolved emotionally and precede our rationality. Often times people can't describe why they made certain decisions, and say it's instinct or gut. The success of this depends on your life history, past patterns and a learned outlook on life.

Risk aversion and the pain bias
The key assertion needed to make my point is that individuals have degrees of risk aversion and we all have a general bias against pain. Risk aversion refers to a person's fear of a negative outcome. A risk taker is willing to take a chance on higher returns in the face of higher losses. They are able to handle the bigger swing of feelings, and enjoy the ups and downs of emotion. There is a rush and excitement when taking a risk, and this in itself can be a goal.
In general though, there is a pain bias in decision evaluations. People are generally driven to minimize absolute loss rather then maximize the win or the overall win/loss ratio. We remember pain more clearly then pleasure. This is evident in many areas of life. A hurtful event might prevent a person from trying anything similar, just to prevent it from happening again even though it doesn't make sense rationally. It's been researched in investing, that people would rather not lose, then win. People hold losing stocks much longer then rationality would indicate so they don't have to admit the loss. They believe it should be worth more, so they stick with it not actualizing a negative feeling. In gambling experiments, when given the choice people choose a high probability small win, rather then a riskier move even though in the long term that would be more profitable, when designed as such.

The Fallacy
This leads to the fallacy that what seems like a rational decision by weighing of risk/reward based on probabilities, has a hidden factor of emotional weight attached. This factor is attached to both the value of an outcome, as well as to the probability. Because of the pain bias, and risk aversion degree, we tend to think that bad things will occur more often then logic indicates. Our decisions then are often not optimal as we seek to avoid a negative outcome. When we see something terrible happen, our memory remembers that, and we seek to avoid it by associating it with the chance of it occurring. This is clearly non-rational.

A rational world
The modern, western world, based on facts, science and since the Enlightenment, values rationality as a high human virtue, has diminished the value of this intuitive process. We have less trust in our instincts and doubt ourselves when we don't have the facts. We are taught to think things through, and look at what's quantifiable. This leads us to confusion and doubt when we need to trust our intuition and feel conflicted. The dualistic model of heart and mind prevents a harmonious integration of all our faculties, based on circumstances. When we overly rely on rationality, we don't understand why we don't feel satisfied sometimes. We are often unable to integrate our personal values of outcomes as feelings, time frame factors get in the way, and what seems like a good decision leaves us unhappy. When we deny the fact that emotion is a factor, we're not aware that it's affecting our judgment in areas that should be judged rationally.

Harmony

Rational --------------------- Emotional
Balanced

If you look inside yourself you'll realize you're not as in control of yourself as you think. Consciousness is what passes through the filter into awareness, but as I've proposed, a decision is often made before you're aware of it. We often believe we are more rational that we really are. When you consider and integrate the emotional factors that influence behavior and decisions, you find balance. The goal of a good decision evaluation is to find harmony between rationality and emotionality. Both heart and mind should be wisely considered.

Conclusion - Harmonious Evaluation
Getting back to the purpose of a decision then, it is to make a correct evaluation of Risk/Reward using a harmonious process appropriately integrating rationality and emotion.
In logical, materialistic decisions, emotions skew our evaluations by inserting feelings, as factors into the outcomes as well as the probabilities. We therefore should take emotions out of the equation. Where rationality is required, possible outcomes should be well defined and materialistic, probabilities should be based on numbers and statistics, and we should make the same decision in the same circumstance every time, not worrying about a possible loss, because we weighed the factors and are content with all possible outcomes. I referred to this when discussing poker in a previous post.
In interpersonal or non-materialistic decisions, logic skews our evaluations by under emphasizing the emotional weights. In these cases we should use rationality to minimize the emotional weight we are giving to a probability, while fully considering the emotional outcome. Probability should not be given emotional weight, but the outcomes should, and quantifiable facts made secondary.

When we integrate both faculties with correct understanding, everything we do in any type of situation will be worthwhile, time well spent, and we won't be hurt by failure because it was the correct decision, rationally and emotionally.

"Let the truth of love be lighted
Let the love of truth shine clear
Sensibility
Armed with sense and liberty
With the heart and mind united
In a single perfect sphere"

- Cygnus X-1 on Hemispheres by RUSH